Contenders or Pretenders? The NFL Teams Making Fans Rethink Their Preseason Takes

Analysis reflects results through Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season.

Preseason predictions are a wonderful thing. Everybody has a playoff team, a sleeper, and a suspiciously detailed explanation for why their favorite franchise has finally figured it out. Then October arrives and starts checking the paperwork. Five weeks into the 2026 NFL season, some teams have earned the hype. Others are asking us to keep believing while quietly moving the goalposts. Here are four NFC teams worth reassessing, with our verdicts on who deserves your confidence and who still owes us an explanation.

San Francisco 49ers: The contender case has receipts

San Francisco is 5–0, with victories over all three NFC West opponents already on the board. The 49ers opened by beating the Rams 27–7 and most recently left Seattle with a 32–29 win. Add up their first five results and you get a plus-61 point differential. That is a stronger argument than a nice record and an enthusiastic preseason podcast appearance.

The encouraging part is the variety: comfortable wins, a six-point victory over Arizona, and a three-point result on the road in Seattle. Our read is that San Francisco has earned confidence across different kinds of games. The caution is that narrow division wins remain narrow division wins; nobody gets to carry October's points into January. Verdict: Contender. If your preseason take had the 49ers near the top, you may retrieve it from the group chat. One screenshot will do.

Minnesota Vikings: Undefeated, with questions attached

Minnesota's 5–0 start includes wins by scores of 9–3, 15–10, and, most recently, 23–13 over New Orleans. Across those five games, opponents have scored just 64 points, or 12.8 per game. Whatever you think of the entertainment value of a 9–3 afternoon, keeping opponents off the scoreboard is a fairly useful football habit.

The question is how much room Minnesota has when that low-scoring formula breaks. The Vikings have twice won while scoring fewer than 20 points. Those wins count, but they leave us wanting to see more before treating this team as an automatic championship favorite. Verdict: Contender, with something left to prove. Respect the results. Keep an eye on the scoring. Being unbeaten does not mean every question has been answered; it means the questions are being asked in a much happier locker room.

Philadelphia Eagles: The reputation needs backup

Philadelphia started 2–0. Since then, the Eagles have lost three straight: 27–7 to Chicago, 24–20 to the Rams, and 19–17 to Jacksonville. Their two wins came by a combined six points. Their record is 2–3. That does not end a season, but it should end the part of the conversation where we assume everything is fine because the helmet looks familiar.

There is a reasonable case for patience: the last two losses were close enough that a small improvement could change the outcome. There is also a reasonable case for skepticism: close losses still need fixing, and the opening wins were hardly comfortable. Our assessment is that Philadelphia has more to demonstrate before earning a place among the teams we trust. Verdict: Pretender to the top tier, for now. The Eagles can change that verdict on the field. The preseason résumé has done enough talking.

Dallas Cowboys: The benefit of the doubt is getting expensive

Dallas sits at 2–3 after a 24–16 loss to a previously winless Tampa Bay team. That is a difficult result to dress up. The Cowboys' own postgame coverage pointed to problems handling pressure and missed defensive opportunities. When multiple parts of the team need to explain the same loss, blaming one unlucky bounce starts to feel ambitious.

One ugly game does not define Dallas, but it does raise the standard for the next positive claim. Before we start discussing a deep playoff run, we would like to see the Cowboys deliver a convincing performance against the opponent actually on the schedule. Verdict: Pretender until the consistency shows up. There is time to recover. There is considerably less patience for another presentation about why this is definitely the week it all clicks.

Make the call. Leave room to change your mind.

Our current read: trust San Francisco, take Minnesota seriously, and make Philadelphia and Dallas earn their way back into the top-tier conversation. These are October judgments, and the fun is watching which ones survive the next round of games. You can back a team's long-term potential and still dislike its next matchup. You can also admit your preseason sleeper needs another nap.

For fans who enjoy making their own calls as the season unfolds, that prediction-driven side of football is where Fliff fits. Fliff is a social sportsbook that turns sports predictions into a free-to-play experience. Fans can claim free Fliff Coins, make picks, and climb leaderboards while earning achievement badges, bringing a little extra competition to the games they already follow. First Time Depositors can get up to $250 in Free Play on Fliff. Explore Fliff, make your own game picks, and see which of your football opinions holds up. Just remember: the group chat has a search function.

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