Jeremiyah Love's phone will have been lighting up in South Bend throughout the opening days of NFL free agency. First, the Walker III alert, then the Etienne alert, two notifications arriving within 48 hours like gut punches. 

The two franchises plastered across every mock draft for months as the most likely to select him are gone. Kansas City handed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III a three-year deal worth up to $45 million, $28.7 million fully guaranteed. New Orleans turned around and handed Travis Etienne a four-year, $52 million homecoming pact.  

The Combine 

Just like that, the Notre Dame superstar's draft destiny got scrambled entirely. He then headed to Indianapolis for the combine and proceeded to show both the Chiefs and the Saints what they will be missing out on in 2026. The 40-yard dash smoked in just 4.36 seconds, a time that Love himself said he was "a little disappointed" by. He wanted to flirt with the 4.2s mark, yet that 4.36 matched Jahmyr Gibbs' historic Combine time and obliterated every pre-Combine projection circling 4.43. 

It's the fastest 40 ever recorded by a running back, posting a 90-plus NGS production score over the last decade. Add the Doak Walker Award, 35 rushing touchdowns across 2024–25, back-to-back 6.9 YPC campaigns, and a 4.2% pass-protection pressure rate on 120 snaps—a number that makes NFL offensive line coaches visibly exhale—and Love is the most complete back in this class. Possibly in years. But with both KC and New Orleans opting for experience over youth, which teams are now considered the most likely to draft the consensus RB1 next month? Let's take a look. 

Titans

Somewhere in Nashville, Titans GM Mike Borgonzi is staring at a whiteboard with "No. 4" circled and two words written beneath it: edge or Love. A couple of looks at last season's performance and the latest betting odds suggest they need both. The best the Titans could manage in 2025 with number one overall Cam Ward under center was 3-14, prompting the bookies to install them as mighty +12500 outsiders to mount a Super Bowl challenge next term. This popular parlay calculator shows that a $1 bet would return some $125 in winnings, showing just how big of an underdog they are in 2026. Those are odds that fans will be taking into account when they make their bets.

Much of that is down to a rushing offense that ranked 30th in the NFL last season—1,589 yards, a franchise embarrassment that made Ward's development harder than it needed to be. Tony Pollard posted 1,082 yards in 2025, but he's 29, playing out the final year of a three-year, $24 million deal, and a post-June 1 designation cuts his dead cap hit to a palatable number while saving $7.25 million. Tyjae Spears contributed 283 rushing yards all season. 

Here's where it gets complicated for Borgonzi. Analysts have floated the idea that Love in the top five "wouldn't shock" league insiders, and at the Combine, Borgonzi himself was pressed directly on the positional value question—this year you've got a guy with top-five talent; where are you on that?  He didn't deflect the way GMs usually deflect. He didn't pivot to edge depth charts or dismiss it philosophically. He sat with it. 

Can Love really go No. 4 overall when Rueben Bain and Arvell Reese are lurking? The betting market (-110) says yes, and the Titans' offseason strongly suggests Borgonzi already got enough done in free agency to afford Love at four. He filled pass-rush depth, added secondary pieces, and addressed the floor—precisely so the draft board could open up.  Cam Ward needs weapons now, and Love could be the first of them. 

Commanders 

The Commanders' running back room isn't thin. It's a roster black hole.

Jacoby Croskey-Merritt is a genuinely compelling seventh-round story—805 yards, eight touchdowns, 4.6 YPC as a 2025 rookie who earned every snap he got. But he's a depth piece, not a franchise cornerstone, and no honest evaluation pretends otherwise. Austin Ekeler is gone. Sources inside the building have confirmed bluntly: the lead back isn't on the roster. Washington went 5-12 last season. The offensive line received investment; the backfield got almost nothing. 

Washington holds the No. 5 pick, one slot behind Tennessee, and confirmed a Combine meeting. Many are projecting a move if Love slides one position. There's a philosophical tension worth acknowledging, though—the new offensive coordinator installing outside zone has historically preferred physical, north-south "thumper" profiles over explosion-first playmakers. But Love's hip fluidity, patience behind zone blocks, and corner-hitting instincts make that debate largely moot when you watch his tape. He's not a finesse runner. He runs through contact. He just also happens to run a 4.36.

The fit is almost uncomfortable in how perfect it looks. Love becomes Jayden Daniels' security blanket, stress-tests defenses vertically, and turns what was a roster liability into a legitimate dual-threat backfield with Croskey-Merritt as an intriguing complement. Commanders at five is the best value play in this entire draft if Tennessee blinks.

Giants 

John Harbaugh didn't come to MetLife Stadium to run four-wide sets and throw bubble screens. His Baltimore blueprint—physical, run-first, force-you-to-respect-the-ground-game—demands an anchor, and right now, the Giants don't have one.

The Saquon Barkley chapter still hangs over this building. Not as shame, exactly, but as scar tissue—the franchise paid premium money for a premium back, watched him leave for Philadelphia, and watched him run for 2,005 yards and a Super Bowl ring while the Giants regressed. The organizational instinct is to never do that again. 

But here's the rub: Harbaugh's entire coaching identity runs counter to that instinct. He just watched Derrick Henry revive his career inside a run-first system built around physical dominance and play-action threat. He knows what a bell-cow does to a defense's soul.

A 30-visit happened, and Love to MetLife is suddenly a genuine possibility. No. 5 pick, Combine conversation, Harbaugh's run-first gospel—the smoke is real. This is the dark horse that keeps draft analysts refreshing their boards at 2 a.m. 

Does the Big Apple media crucify a top-5 RB pick if the Giants miss the playoffs again? Absolutely. Does Harbaugh care? Ask Ravens fans from 2023. The guy bets on his system, then builds pieces that fit it. Love—explosive, punishing, pass-pro elite, three-down reliable—is Harbaugh's archetype made flesh. Worth the war room fight.